Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
